To promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, on the one hand, we must solve the risks exposed by the current real estate market and eat "reassurance" for housing enterprises and the market; On the other hand, accelerate the structural reform of the real estate supply side and guide the real estate industry to better adapt to market demand.
    China’s real estate market has changed from the total demand to the overall balance of supply and demand, and the regional structural contradictions are prominent. In the future, all kinds of potential risks faced by the real estate market have increased significantly, and the challenges faced by the current real estate development model are very severe. It is urgent to explore and establish a new development model.
    Text | "Outlook" Newsweek reporter Zheng Juntian Zhou Kai
    Experts believe that after more than 20 years of rapid development, the real estate industry has fundamentally changed the situation of housing shortage, the living standard of residents has improved to a great extent, and the industry has entered a new stage of development. In the future, all regions and departments should further deepen the implementation of real estate policies, tap new demands, meet people’s yearning for a better life, and gradually establish a new model of real estate development to promote the stable, healthy and high-quality development of the real estate market.
    According to the "Basic Situation of the National Real Estate Market in 2023" previously released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in a single month, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing in December 2023 increased by 42% and 39% respectively, and the national property market showed a "tail-up" market at the end of the year.
    Ding Zuyu, chairman of Kerui Group, believes that various favorable policies in the property market have played a supporting role in the real estate market. Judging from the transaction data of 30 key cities monitored by Kerui in December, the property market in key cities rose more and fell less than the previous month. For example, in cities such as Xi ‘an and Hangzhou, under the continuous fermentation of the New Deal in the property market and the concentration of high-quality supply, rigid and high-end improved demand concentrated in the market, prompting the winter market. The improvement projects in the central city of Suzhou, Ningbo, Jinan and other cities are obviously better than those in the periphery, and the transaction remains stable.
    At the end of August and the beginning of September last year, since four first-tier cities almost simultaneously announced the implementation of "recognizing houses but not loans", the efforts to loosen the regulation policies of the property market in various places have obviously increased and the pace has accelerated.
    According to incomplete statistics, up to now, most second-tier cities have completely canceled the purchase restriction, including Harbin, Shenyang, Dalian, Nanchang, Lanzhou, Nanjing, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Hefei, Wuhan and Xiamen. Other cities have optimized their purchase restriction policies for local areas, such as Tianjin, Chengdu and Hangzhou.
    "Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Xi’ an and other cities have achieved significant volume transactions, all hitting new highs in the second half of last year because of the full release of improved demand." Ding Zuyu analysis.
    China Index Academy released a report saying that resolving real estate risks is still the main policy line in 2024, and the pace of "three major projects" is expected to accelerate. At present, the central government has made clear the direction of real estate policy, that is, stabilizing the real estate market and building a new model of real estate development. In 2024, local policies will continue to be optimized and adjusted. Beijing and Shanghai will reduce the down payment and loan interest rates and optimize the standard for the identification of ordinary houses, which will promote the expected restoration of the real estate market.
    According to the report, in December 2023, the sales scale of new residential buildings in key 100 cities showed a "tail-jumping" market, and the sales area increased by nearly 20% month-on-month. However, the pace of real estate market repair in 2024 still depends on whether buyers’ expectations for home ownership can be improved, and there is still some adjustment pressure in the short-term new housing market.
    Industry insiders and interviewed experts generally believe that to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, on the one hand, we must solve the risks exposed by the current real estate market and eat a "reassuring" for housing enterprises and the market; On the other hand, accelerate the structural reform of the real estate supply side and guide the real estate industry to better adapt to market demand.
    —— Continue to promote the "Baojiaolou" and support housing enterprises to tide over the crisis through classified policies.
    Cao Zhounan, chairman of the Blue-Green Twin Cities Group, and other industry insiders suggested that banks should be encouraged to reasonably extend the loan contract period according to the situation of project sales for normal and qualified project loans of private housing enterprises; We can explore the establishment of a real estate stable development fund, give low-interest loans to private housing enterprises that strive to ensure delivery and regular operation, and replace short-term loans due.
    -explore multi-channel support for real estate enterprises in danger to resolve risks.
    Industry insiders suggest that financial institutions holding domestic and foreign bonds of real estate enterprises should be explored to carry out debt-to-equity swaps and promote debt restructuring of high-quality real estate enterprises; Or, policy banks and state-owned capital will invest in high-quality housing enterprises in stages in the form of "last in, first out" preferred shares, inject incremental funds, and then withdraw from the equity after the business operation improves. In terms of legal procedures such as judicial reorganization, we will provide more legal support and convenience for housing enterprises according to the actual situation.
    -accelerating the structural reform of the supply side of real estate.
    At present, a series of new systems are being explored, and the central government is establishing a new linkage mechanism of "people, housing, land and money", and studying the establishment of three systems of housing physical examination, pension and insurance, as well as the establishment of urban design management system.
    The insiders suggest that in the supply of housing products, the land transfer index should be determined according to the real needs of cities, and a "people-land" linkage mechanism should be established to match the population inflow with the increase and decrease of land supply. Cities with large population inflow and rapid economic growth should moderately adjust the land supply, and achieve the total red line of cultivated land through inter-provincial adjustment and occupation and compensation balance.
    -lay a solid foundation for the "three major projects".
    The "three major projects", such as the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency use, and the transformation of villages in cities, are being promoted. By the end of November, 2023, there were 406 renovation projects of villages in cities nationwide, with an estimated total investment of 1.8 trillion yuan. A new round of affordable housing planning and construction has been launched, and a number of projects have been started in Shanghai, Jinan, Qingdao, Fuzhou and Changsha.
Xu Juntu/This Journal
    At present, the situation and logic of China’s real estate market have undergone major changes.
    Yan Rong, president of Shanghai Real Estate Research Institute, believes that with the development stage and changes in the market environment, China’s real estate market has shifted from short supply to a new stage of overall balance of supply and demand and prominent regional structural contradictions. The current real estate needs to explore and establish a new development model.
    According to the insiders, China’s housing has bid farewell to the era of shortage, and a new industrial development cycle needs to be established to realize the rebalancing of the real estate market.
    Continue to tap the potential housing demand of migrant workers. Li Yujia, deputy director of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that with the steady progress of urbanization in China, the number of new citizens and migrants will gradually increase, and the scale of middle-income groups will further expand, and there is still potential to increase the supply of public services for their housing and life. Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase China, said that if the potential demand of migrant workers and their families is to be transformed into actual demand, it is necessary to strengthen the "multi-channel supply" of housing, such as affordable housing and rental housing. In addition, the further deepening of rural land system reform will also form new growth momentum.
    Excavate the needs of urban village reconstruction and old reconstruction. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that the period of large-scale housing construction has passed, but China can still tap the stock market, stimulate investment and take into account the improvement of people’s livelihood. Chen Jie, director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Research Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University, said that the stock of urban housing in China has now exceeded 30 billion square meters, and it is increasing at a rate of 800 million to 1 billion square meters per year. In the medium and long term, at least 450-500 million square meters of houses need to be built to replace the old and dangerous houses to be demolished even if the depreciation rate is 1.5% of the stock every year.
    Excavate improved demand. Li Yujia believes that at present, residents have a strong desire to improve their living conditions, and the housing market still has potential. The quality of existing housing in some first-and second-tier cities is not high, and there is great potential for improvement. Chen Jie also believes that once the market launches suitable products, the potential for purchasing houses will be gradually released, and all localities should continue to introduce restrictive policies for unbundling housing to stabilize market expectations.
    Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said earlier: "Under the new model, real estate enterprises should have a clear understanding. Now they should strive for high quality, new technology and good service. Whoever can build a good house for the masses and provide good service for the masses will have a market and development."
    In Ni Hong’s view, the standard of a good house is green, low-carbon, intelligent and safe, so that people can live healthily, use it conveniently, with low cost and peace of mind.
    Ding Zuyu and other experts believe that the regulatory level should encourage development enterprises to design better housing products; At the same time, we should optimize the operation mode of the real estate industry, pay more attention to the stock market, completely abandon the business mode of "high debt, high leverage and high turnover", encourage housing enterprises to improve their stock operation ability and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development.■
