Ten hottest sectors in mid-year inventory： the defensive sectors such as electricity and banking, which have the strongest theme in the first half of low-altitude economy, have remarkable excess retur

Cailian (Shanghai, editor Zhai Zhehao and Feng Lin) News,Unconsciously, A shares have quietly passed in the first half of 2024. Looking back at the market in the first half of the year, some hot sectors are active. From the data point of view, the total turnover of the two cities reached 100.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.93 trillion yuan compared with the same period in 2023 (111.1 trillion yuan) and a year-on-year decrease of 9.83%.

In terms of overall market size, the market value of listed companies in the first half of this year was 85.00 trillion yuan, which was nearly 1.80 trillion yuan lower than the market value of listed companies at the end of 2023 (86.80 trillion yuan).

In terms of index performance, in the first half of 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,967.40 points, down 0.25% in the first half, with the lowest at 2,635.09 points and the highest at 3,174.27 points. Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8848.70 points, down 7.10%, with the lowest at 7683.63 points and the highest at 9805.92 points. Growth enterprise market index closed at 1683.43 points, down 10.99%, with the lowest at 1482.99 points and the highest at 1926.40 points.

Looking back at the first half of this year, although various concepts are still emerging one after another, synthetic biology, commercial aerospace, synaesthesia integration and so on have come and gone, but only dividends can really achieve a trend increase, the market operation is not satisfactory, and dividend stocks with defensive attributes are fascinating, and many related sub-sectors such as banks, electricity, highways and coal have achieved significant excess returns in the first half of the year. At the same time, the concept of low-altitude economy, as the strongest theme in the first half of the year, stood out from the whole market with an increase of 18.42%, and brought out a number of bull stocks such as Wan Feng Aowei, CITIC Haizhi and Jianxin. In addition, consumer electronics concept stocks such as PCB, AI mobile phone and AIPC also set off an upsurge at the end of the first half of the year, which became a hot spot that investors could not ignore.

How many of the top ten outlets in the first half of 2024 belong to you?

NO.1 low-altitude economy

Low-altitude economy is undoubtedly the most popular theme concept in the first half of this year. Since the two sessions of the National People’s Congress wrote the low-altitude economy into the government work report, local governments in various provinces and cities have intensively issued relevant policies to seize the opportunity period of low-altitude economy development, rapidly promote the deep integration and coordinated development of related industrial chains, and accelerate the landing of low-altitude economy industries. According to the data of "National Three-dimensional Traffic Network Planning Outline", the industrial scale of China’s low-altitude economy will reach 6 trillion yuan by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.6%.

Looking back at the market performance, the concept of low-altitude economy showed a strong profit-making effect in the context of weak market environment in the first half of the year. First of all, from February to March, it went out of a comprehensive main rally, and after a period of correction, it ushered in a second wave of speculation in mid-April. Among them, Wan Feng Aowei’s highest increase in the first half of the year was more than 4 times, and popular stocks such as Rice Information, CITIC Haizhi and Jindun shares also rose by more than 200%.

In addition, with the low-altitude economic bidding in various places in the past three months, the expectation of policy transmission to orders is constantly strengthening. In the second half of the year, the low-altitude economy is expected to shift from the previous conceptual hype to the fundamentals of order landing. In the follow-up, we can still pay attention to the direction in which the pace of industrial trends obviously exceeds expectations in the main links of low-altitude economy such as the whole machine and parts, planning and design, management system and operation.

NO.2 bank

If only from the perspective of one-day increase, the banking sector is easily ignored by the market, but in fact, banking stocks are one of the best directions for the plate effect in the first half of the year, with an overall increase of nearly 20%. The reason is that in 2024, the equity market fluctuated greatly, investors’ risk appetite declined, and funds sought more certain returns. The high dividend yield and extremely low valuation of banking stocks have become the first choice of funds, and the demand for defense in the superimposed market has increased, which has boosted the market performance of the entire banking sector.

From the profit side, the optimization of real estate policy, the promotion of debt package, the repair of bank income statement and the improvement of industry risk expectation will help to support the valuation. In addition, according to the statistics of Industrial Securities, the banking sector is one of the sectors with the highest proportion of passive fund positions, and it has become a direction that has benefited significantly from the expansion of passive funds. In terms of individual stocks, Bank of Nanjing, Bank of Chengdu and Bank of Changshu were among the top gainers, with a half-year increase of over 30%, while the trillion-dollar giant Agricultural Bank also rose by over 25%, while ICBC just hit a new high in the year, with the total market value of A shares and H shares also surpassing Kweichow Moutai.

Looking forward to the performance of the banking sector in the second half of the year, the allocation value of banks as fixed-income assets still exists under the background of asset shortage, and the allocation value of large and medium-sized banks with high dividends is still outstanding at present. At the same time, we should pay attention to the catalysis of steady growth and the effect of real estate policy on regional banks and stock banks.

NO.3 electric power

The power sector also performed well in the first half of the year. In the context of the overall weakness of the index environment, it has stepped out of an independent trend market. And the leading stocks are mostly large market capitalization weights, among which the benchmark stock Changjiang Power has increased by more than 20%, and the current total market capitalization exceeds 700 billion, while China Guangdong Nuclear Power, Guodian Power, SDIC Power and China Nuclear Power have also increased by more than 30% in the first half of this year.

The reason why the power sector can show excess returns. On the one hand, the profitability of thermal power enterprises has been improved by the decline of coal price and the improvement of electricity price, and the performance of 1H24 thermal power continues to improve. At the same time, the promotion of electricity reform policy, such as the landing of capacity price and coal-electricity linkage, has enhanced the performance stability of thermal power enterprises and enhanced the market’s confidence in the thermal power sector. In addition, the abundant cash flow and high dividend-paying ability of related core enterprises also provide defensiveness and attract the group of medium and long-term allocated funds.

Generally speaking, the trend market of power sector is expected to continue into the second half of the year under the resonance of performance improvement, policy support and the defensive characteristics brought by the high dividend of leading enterprises.

NO.4 zhongtegu

In the first half of the cold market, the China Special Appraisal Board, which has the characteristics of "industry leader+large market value+low valuation+high dividend", became the most enthusiastic haven for market funds:

China CNOOC rose by 57.37% in the first half of the year, a record high;

Bank of China rose 15.79% in the first half of the year, a record high;

China Mobile rose 10.49% in the first half of the year, a record high;

In addition, COSCO Haikong, China General Nuclear Power, China Petroleum, China Nuclear Power and China Shenhua all increased by more than 40% in the first half of the year.

From the policy point of view, on January 24th this year, at the press conference of the State Council Press Office, the relevant person in charge said that market value management would be further studied and incorporated into the performance appraisal of the heads of central enterprises, so as to guide the heads of central enterprises to pay more attention to the market performance of listed companies controlled by them. According to the institutional research report, in 2023, the dividend rate of many central enterprises has been significantly improved. Under the policy constraints, it is expected that the market value management measures of listed central state-owned enterprises will be introduced one after another, which will increase the market value management power of central state-owned enterprises and accelerate the repair of valuations.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, a number of brokers, including Western Securities and Founder Securities, said that a "new dumbbell" combination is expected to continue to outperform in the market outlook, that is, one end is "Zhongte Estimate" and the other end is "Cote Estimate". In addition, it does not rule out that the central state-owned enterprises or the fields related to launching a new round of mergers and acquisitions have key technologies that can be controlled independently. Therefore, the directions of advantageous industries, self-control and future industries are also worthy of attention.

NO.5 Sora concept

In February this year, the concept of Sora was born. The so-called Sora is a text-controlled video generation model developed by OpenAl, which can generate high-definition smooth video for 60 seconds according to the text instructions input by users. Analysts said that the introduction of Sora model will promote the innovation of content creation in the media industry, especially in the field of short video, which may bring about the rapid growth of short video production capacity. At the same time, it is also expected to empower other fields, such as film and television/animation, marketing education, games, etc., and promote the development of related industries by improving content production efficiency, innovating content forms and enhancing user experience. In addition, the increase in Sora’s demand for computing power will drive the demand for upstream computing power infrastructure to grow, bringing investment opportunities to related hardware and software companies.

From the market point of view, the emergence of Sora concept once led the application direction of AI software out of a wave of main rising market from February to March. Among them, Wei Haide once walked out of the 20CM 7 board, and the shares of Annoqi and Insai Group also tripled in just one month. However, since the end of March, related concept stocks have fluctuated all the way down. Until recently, it was stimulated by the news that OpenAI would suspend the API port in China, which ushered in a certain degree of rebound. However, with the coming of July, the interim results of listed companies will be intensively disclosed, and the follow-up can focus on which segment of the AI application field is the first to usher in performance cash.

NO.6 coal

The coal sector still maintained a relatively independent trend market in the first half of this year. From the demand side, the demand for energy and electricity remains flexible, and the problem of new energy consumption and the growth of thermal power installed capacity will stimulate the demand for thermal coal. At the same time, the policy of steady economic growth is expected to promote the recovery of domestic demand, and the periodic resonance of replenishment at home and abroad may bring about improvement in demand. On the supply side, the long-term capital expenditure of the coal industry is insufficient, and it is expected that the tight supply of coal will continue. In the boom cycle of the coal industry, the increase in costs and the injection of assets of central state-owned enterprises will highlight the profitability and growth certainty of the sector.

However, it should be noted that the differentiation of coal stocks is obvious, among which Xinji Energy is the strongest, rising by more than 80%, Haohua Energy is not too much, rising by more than 50%, while China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry and China Coal Energy, which rank the top three in market value, all rise by more than 25%. While stocks such as Anyuan Coal Industry, Lu ‘an Huaneng and mountain coal international dropped significantly. This may be related to the performance growth of individual stocks and the dividend ratio. Therefore, in the context of no major switch in market style in the second half of the year, we should still focus on those leading enterprises with high dividends and stable cash flow.

NO.7 expressway

As an important part of dividend stocks, the expressway sector has strong defensive attributes, and has achieved considerable excess benefits in the downturn of the market. Among them, Shandong Expressway rose by 35.74% in the first half of the year, and Jiangxi-Guangdong Expressway, Wantong Expressway, Sichuan Chengyu Expressway, Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway and Guangdong Expressway A rose by more than 20% in the first half of the year.

From the perspective of dividend yield, over the years, high-speed plate companies generally have a high dividend yield and dividend ratio. The dividend yield of Fujian Expressway has exceeded 8% in the past 12 months, and the dividend yields of Shandong Expressway, Sichuan Chengyu and Guangdong Expressway A have exceeded 4%. Some companies will even raise the dividend ratio for many times. Take Wantong Expressway as an example, the planned dividend ratio is 60% in 2021-2023, and it was originally raised to 70% in 2023-2025 and then raised to 75% again.

In addition to sub-infrared, the reform of future highway laws and regulations is another highlight of the plate. On April 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the Management Measures for Franchising Infrastructure and Public Utilities, which came into effect on May 1, 2024. The 2024 edition of the Management Measures stated that "the franchise period should not exceed 40 years in principle, and franchise projects with large investment scale and long return period can be appropriately extended according to actual conditions". Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that the longest charging period of current operating expressways is 25 years in the east and 30 years in the central and western regions. If the "Regulations on Toll Road Management" follows the "Measures" to raise the operating period, the rate of return of highway reconstruction and expansion projects is expected to increase, and the valuation level of the whole industry is expected to increase.

NO.8 nonferrous metals

Cyclic resource stocks represented by nonferrous metals are also unavoidable in the first half of this year. The expected deduction of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle and the warming of global risk aversion caused by geopolitical conflicts have led to a collective surge in the prices of non-ferrous metals such as gold, silver and copper, with COMEX gold futures once exceeding $2,400 at the highest, and Luntong copper futures once exceeding $11,000 per ton.

In addition, from the demand side, with the expected strengthening of global economic recovery, the demand for metals is expected to increase, especially industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, which will benefit from the continuous growth of new energy demand and the recovery of domestic economy, and also push up prices and drive the performance of related enterprises to rebound. In addition, from the perspective of capital, in the first quarter of 2024, the non-ferrous plate was the direction that received the most infrastructure allocation, which once again showed that the market remained optimistic about the medium and long-term prospects of these metals. It is precisely under the constant catalysis of the above-mentioned price increase logic that the market has emerged such trends as North Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, Hunan Gold and Zijin Mining.

Looking forward to the market of non-ferrous plates in the second half of the year, under the background that international metal prices remain at a high range, related stocks still have the possibility of upward repair after finishing. In addition, we can also pay attention to small metals such as antimony, which are driven by the rise in industrial metal prices. However, we also need to pay attention to the impact of potential risk factors such as changes in Fed policy, uncertainty of downstream demand recovery and geopolitical risks on the market.

NO.9 PCB

According to the Prismark report, the global output value of printed circuit boards (PCBs) in 2023 was $69.517 billion, down 15% year-on-year. With the destocking and the accelerated growth of downstream application demand, the industry is gradually recovering from the downturn in 2023. A person from the Securities Department of Shenghong Technology told the Cailian reporter that the downstream demand has recovered better than last year and has begun to pick orders.

However, the recovery of PCB industry is dominated by structural opportunities, and some enterprises may face greater operating pressure. Xing sen technology mentioned that the oversupply and fierce competition in the general multi-layer board market can hardly be substantially alleviated when accepting institutional research. In terms of market performance, Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology, Shengyi Electronics, Hudian, etc. have risen over 60% since the first half of the year, but nearly 80% of the stocks in the whole PCB sector still have negative annual growth.

Some analysts said that the categories with relatively stiff market demand include high-end PCB products in the fields of AI servers, new energy vehicles and 5G. The requirements of PCB layers and special processes for AI servers and high-speed switches are complicated, and the industry barriers are high. Only a few digital board manufacturers in the world can undertake relevant orders, which will also put forward higher requirements for investors’ fundamental judgment.

NO.10 AI mobile phone &AI PC

The wave of AI is still going on. The market value of NVIDIA has exceeded US$ 3 trillion. However, the AI concept stocks of A-shares have long since ceased to be the grand occasion of last year, and the market’s hype for AI tends to be rational. Except for some computing hardware directly involved in the supply chain of NVIDIA, the most sought after by funds is the end-side AI concept represented by AI mobile phones and AI PC.

First, at the Microsoft Build Developer Foresight Conference in May, Microsoft launched a new artificial intelligence computer named Copilot+PC, and then Apple launched Apple Intelligence at WWDC in June, showing a new form of AI mobile phone. Western Securities pointed out that with the maturity of end-side AI technology from the core layer to the application layer, consumer electronic terminals have entered an important window of product iteration. All terminal brand manufacturers are integrated into the "AI blood" and constantly innovate, which is expected to cause a new round of "machine change tide" for end users.

With the technical iteration of AI end-side products and applications, the market expects more AI explosive products to appear. Since the end of May, a number of AI mobile phones and AI PC concept stocks have soared, which has driven the whole consumer electronics sector to rise in resonance. Among them, Yingli shares rose by more than 160% in 9 trading days, and Luxshare, Lansi Technology, Lingyizhi and other large-cap stocks all rose by more than 20% in June.

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The general, industrial and vertical AI big model markets are in full bloom.

China Business Daily (Reporter Zhao Yiru)"Every family has a big model" has become the most important way to show muscles in the scientific and technological circle in the first half of this year. In just a few months, nearly 100 AI models have emerged in the market. General model, industry model, vertical model, companies have chosen the best track to start, and the competition for big models has become fierce.
The 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcases the achievements of AI+ smart medical services. (Image courtesy of CNSPHOTO)
The general big model is fiercely competitive.
The first shot of the domestic "Hundred Models War" was started by Baidu.
In March this year, ERNIE Bot, Baidu’s generative AI product, officially invited for testing. Li Yanhong, founder, chairman and CEO of Baidu, said: "ERNIE Bot and generative AI represent a new technology paradigm and a great opportunity that every enterprise can’t miss. The AI ​ ​ market is about to usher in explosive demand growth, and its commercial value release will be unprecedented and exponential. "
As the first published AI general model in China, ERNIE Bot has made a full stack layout in the four-tier architecture of "chip-framework-model-application". This has also become one of Baidu’s competitive advantages.
In April, Alibaba Cloud’s "Tongyi Qianwen" model also began to invite tests. Zhang Yong, CEO of Alibaba Cloud Intelligent Group, said that all Alibaba’s products will be connected to the "Tongyi Qianwen" model in the future and be completely transformed.
"For the AI ​ ​ era, all products deserve to be redone with a big model, and all companies are on the same starting line." Zhang Yong said.
Regarding the positioning of "Tongyi Qianwen", Zhou Jingren, CTO of Alibaba Cloud Intelligent Group, said that Tongyi Qianwen is a general model and will not be optimized or customized according to a specific business problem. The ability to open up the universal question means that enterprises do not need to train large models from scratch, but can form their own exclusive models on the basis of universal question, combined with application scenarios, knowledge systems and special needs of the industry.
In May this year, Iflytek released the "iFLYTEK Spark Cognitive Model". Liu Qingfeng, chairman of Iflytek, said that Spark Cognitive Model has surpassed ChatGPT in text generation, knowledge quiz and mathematical ability, and strives to surpass ChatGPT as a whole by the end of October.
In June this year, 360 Group released the self-developed cognitive general model "360 Zhinao 4.0", and announced that 360 Zhinao has been connected to 360′ s product "Family Bucket".
"China has entered the period of the Hundred Models War. In addition to its basic ability, it is more important to compete in application scenarios." Zhou Hongyi, founder of 360 Group (hereinafter referred to as 360), said. At the C end, 360 plans to embed the AI ​ ​ big model capability into the core products, so that it can provide services to users like AI assistants. On the B side, the 360 plan is first applied in large-scale industry models and large enterprises.
In addition, Shangtang Technology released the "SenseNova" large model system, Kunlun Wanwei released the 100 billion-level large language model "Tiangong", and Beijing Zhiyuan Artificial Intelligence Research Institute released the Enlightenment 3.0 large model series …
"The domestic AI big model is in full bloom. First of all, because the big model is the basis for the development of the new generation of information technology revolution AI era, large Internet companies will follow up, and innovative enterprises will try their best to do it if they have the ability. Secondly, because foreign countries have successively opened up some platforms, they can save the training cost of large models, and some fine-tuning and reasoning costs are affordable for many teams, so domestic large models can flourish. " Shenyang, director of the Metacosmic Culture Laboratory of Tsinghua University School of Journalism and Communication, told the China Business Daily reporter.
"The phenomenon that the AI ​ ​ big model is in full bloom shows a trend, that is, generative AI may have a profound impact on the industrial structure and society in the future. Now it has just begun, and the penetration of AI into the industry is deepening. " Wu Tian, vice president of Baidu Group and deputy director of the National Engineering Research Center for Deep Learning Technology and Application, said.
The big industry model takes a different approach.
In the case of fierce competition in the general big model, some enterprises saw the advantages of the industry big model and chose to release the industry big model first.
In June this year, Tencent announced the research and development progress of Tencent Cloud’s big model industry, and jointly launched the cooperation of building a big model industry with 22 customers, and jointly launched the "Tencent Cloud Industry Big Model Ecological Plan" with 17 ecological partners.
"We believe that customers need more industry-specific industry models." Tang Daosheng, senior executive vice president of Tencent Group and CEO of Tencent Cloud and Smart Industry Group, said.
Tang Daosheng believes that at present, the universal big language model has certain limitations in dealing with the landing of industrial scenes. First of all, the training data of the general large model mainly comes from public data sets or network data, and the knowledge about the professional field of specific industries is limited. In addition, the training of general large language model requires a lot of computing resources and a long training cycle, which may be expensive and time-consuming for enterprises. At the same time, safety and compliance are also necessary considerations. Therefore, it is very important to choose to cooperate with cloud vendors with one-stop industry model service capabilities to create enterprise-specific industry model, which can reduce the cost and time investment of enterprises while being easy to use and use.
Coincidentally, Huawei also chose to release a big model of the industry.
In July this year, Zhang Pingan, managing director of Huawei and CEO of Huawei Cloud, released Pangu Big Model 3.0 at Huawei Developers Conference 2023. At present, Pangu model has played a role in many industries, such as finance, manufacturing, pharmaceutical research and development, coal mine, railway and so on.
"Pangu was born for the industry, so it is necessary to think for the industry and better serve customers in thousands of industries." Zhang Pingan said.
"Huawei has a very strong business foundation in many industries. As a big model of the industry, it can be quickly applied to various industries and directly exert economic benefits and social values. The general big model is oriented to C-end users, and its generated results are highly uncertain, which will also bring greater regulatory costs. " Shenyang said.
"If the GM model is to be really well done and quickly put into application in the C-end market, it will take time to polish its software, and it will also face the cost and technical difficulties of large-scale investment in content management. Therefore, from the perspective of research and development progress, the industry model can be used first. Huawei and Tencent have a good foundation in this respect and can quickly put it into the industry to use it. " Shenyang believes.
Vertical large model highlights advantages
Some companies choose to continue to narrow the scope of application of the AI ​ ​ big model and focus on the vertical field.
In July this year, Ctrip released the first vertical model of the tourism industry, "Ctrip asks". Liang Jianzhang, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Ctrip Group, expressed the hope that users would get "reliable content and reliable recommendation" from the tourism industry, including "Ctrip asks".
Ctrip’s motivation to launch the vertical big model is precisely to see the "unreliability" of the general big model.
"The opportunity of the vertical big model is that AIGC has encountered a very big challenge-the answer is not so reliable." Liang Jianzhang said. He believes that even if the planning saves half an hour, the recommended hotel or itinerary may have a 5% chance of being wrong, which is not worth the candle. As a large vertical model, "Ctrip asks" screens 20 billion high-quality unstructured tourism data, and combines Ctrip’s existing accurate structured real-time data with Ctrip’s historical training robots and search algorithms to train the self-developed vertical model.
Zhihu also launched its own big model based on its own content advantages.
In April this year, Zhihu officially released the Chinese big model of "Knowing the Chart AI". Kelly Y Zhou, founder, chairman and CEO of Zhihu, said: "With the unique advantages of application layer and data layer, Zhihu will contribute to the big language model of Chinese Internet."
The first big model function "Hot List Summary" of the Chinese big model "Knowing the Chart AI" aims to capture, sort out and aggregate the answers to the questions on the Zhihu Hot List by using the super language understanding ability, and show the answers to the users, so as to provide them with intuitive and clear answers.
"It is very necessary for companies such as Ctrip and Zhihu to launch vertical models. At present, we urgently need large industry models provided by vertical fields. The vertical large model can get more social feedback in the process of continuous use through the general base large model, plus industry data, industry fine-tuning and industry application scenarios, thus achieving a high degree of intelligence. " Shenyang believes.
"Hundred Models Battle" Competition Final
The booming AI big model industry soon ushered in industry standardization and management norms.
On July 7, at the 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, the National Artificial Intelligence Standardization General Group announced the list of the first large-scale model standardization special group leader units in China. The joint team leaders are six enterprises, including Beijing Baidu Netcom Technology Co., Ltd., Alibaba Cloud Intelligent Group, Iflytek Co., Ltd., Sanliuling Security Technology Co., Ltd., Huawei Cloud Computing Technology Co., Ltd. and China Mobile Communications Co., Ltd. Research Institute.
"Standardization of large models is very important." Wu Tian told the China Business Daily reporter, "Baidu, as the co-leader, hopes to actively play its role in promoting the research and development of core technologies, industrial application and ecological construction of large models, and promote the top-level design and rule development of large models standardization. Baidu itself is an important practitioner, with first-hand practical experience, and hopes to actively participate in it to promote and promote the development of the big model industry. "
On July 15th, the National Network Information Office, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security and the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, promulgated the Interim Measures for the Management of Generative Artificial Intelligence Services, aiming at promoting the healthy development and standardized application of generative artificial intelligence, safeguarding national security and social public interests, and protecting the legitimate rights and interests of citizens, legal persons and other organizations.
Whether it is general, industrial or vertical, the number of large models has increased rapidly in just a few months. At the 2023 Global Digital Economy Conference, Jiang Guangzhi, Party Secretary and Director of Beijing Economic and Information Technology Bureau, said that with the upsurge of large-scale model development in ChatGPT, more than 80 large-scale models have been publicly released in China so far.
With so many large models, the final result of competition is inevitably curious.
"From the current point of view, it is impossible for an AI big model to dominate the world, because whether the AI big model can be widely used depends on the technical ability on the one hand and the application scenario and traffic pattern on the other." Shenyang believes, "But from the ultimate direction, when we reach the stage of general artificial intelligence, we may only need a big AI model."
"the AI big model is just a phased phenomenon. In the process of evolution, various enterprises and institutions will gradually find their own positioning and move towards market segments. " Wu Tian told reporters, "I think the final result of the big model is that only a few big models will stay in the future." Because the cost of making a big model from the bottom is very high, it takes years of accumulation, firm confidence and continuous investment to do it well. In the future, we may only rely on a few large models, and these large models will have a very wide application ecology. "
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IMF says the Fed may need to raise interest rates from the end of 2022.

　　Xinhua News Agency, Washington, July 1 (Reporter Gao Pan Xiong Maoling) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on July 1 that the US Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates from the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023 in view of the fact that the US inflation rate will continue to be higher than the target of 2% in the next few years.

　　On the same day, the IMF said in a statement concluding its consultation on Article IV of the United States that the economic growth rate of the United States is expected to reach 7% this year, higher than the 6.4% predicted in April. Large-scale fiscal stimulus has increased the possibility that the US inflation rate will continue to be higher than the 2% target. It is estimated that by the end of this year, the inflation rate measured by the US consumer price index will reach 4.3%, and it will slow down to 2.4% by the end of 2022, but it will remain above 2% in the following years.

　　The IMF believes that the rapid recovery of the US economy and additional financial support make it necessary for the Fed to consider changing its monetary policy in the coming months. The Fed may need to reduce the scale of asset purchases from the first half of 2022 and raise interest rates from the end of 2022 or early 2023.

　　The IMF believes that the main risk facing the US economy still comes from the COVID-19 epidemic, and it is necessary to continue to promote vaccination and make emergency plans to prevent the epidemic from rebounding. In addition, if the size of the fiscal expenditure bill finally passed by the US Congress is smaller than the Biden administration’s proposal, it will also pose a downside risk to the US economy.

　　The IMF pointed out that it is a serious concern that many trade-distorting measures introduced by the US government still exist in the past four years. In particular, the US government still maintains tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products, washing machines, solar panels and a series of China goods, and promises to give priority to American products in public procurement. The IMF calls on the US government to lift trade restrictions and impose tariffs, and strictly restrict the "Buy American" clause to make it conform to the international trade obligations of the United States.

　　The IMF pointed out that in the past four years, the United States launched countervailing investigations based on exchange rate undervaluation, and included exchange rate clauses in trade agreements, which also posed serious risks to the multilateral trading system and the international monetary system. Treating an undervalued exchange rate as a subsidy that should be offset may aggravate trade tensions and trigger trade retaliation. The IMF believes that the United States should cooperate constructively with its trading partners to better solve the macro-structural distortion that affects the external balance of payments and strengthen the rule-based multilateral trading system.

　　The fourth clause consultation is the routine judgment and evaluation of IMF economists on the economic performance and macro policies of member countries every year.

The population of golden monkey in Shennongjia increased to more than 1600.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Wuhan, June 29th, the results of the recent fourth survey of golden monkeys in Shennongjia forest area show that the population of golden monkeys in the forest area has improved significantly. Compared with the third survey in 2019, the population of golden monkeys increased by one, and the number increased by 147, reaching a total of 1618.

As the easternmost region in the world, Shennongjia is also the only region in the world where Sichuan golden monkey subspecies Hubei is distributed. In recent years, this population has become a typical isolated "small population" with the least number and the most endangered in Sichuan golden monkey.

According to the survey, in 1990, there were 5 groups and 501 golden monkeys in Shennongjia, with a habitat of 164 square kilometers. In 2005, there were 1282 individuals in 8 groups, with a habitat of 189 square kilometers. In 2019, there were 10 groups and 1471 animals, with a habitat of 354 square kilometers.

In order to fully grasp the number and distribution of golden monkey population in Shennongjia today and provide support for effectively protecting the flagship species in Shennongjia area, Shennongjia forest area organized the fourth survey.

Feng Wei, secretary of the Party Committee of Shennongjia Forest Region, said that the survey shows that there are 11 groups of golden monkeys in Shennongjia area, with a population of 1618, with a habitat area of 401 square kilometers.

Based on the distribution characteristics of Sichuan golden monkey and its flagship role in biodiversity conservation in Shennongjia, Hubei subspecies of Sichuan golden monkey was renamed as Shennongjia golden monkey in this survey, which is convenient for protection and management as an independent management unit.

Shennongjia is the only administrative region named after "forest region" in China, and it is a world-renowned biodiversity enrichment area and species gene bank. Over the years, Shennongjia forest region has firmly adhered to the bottom line of ecological security, continuously improved the diversity and stability of the ecosystem, implemented zoning, classification, control and negative list management, comprehensively promoted the management of lakes and grasses in landscape forest fields, and completed 24,000 mu of forest tending, 297,000 mu of degraded forest restoration and 1,028,600 mu of closing hillsides to facilitate afforestation. The forest coverage rate has stabilized at 91.12%, and the quality of ecological environment has been continuously improved. (Reporter Li Siyuan)

Editor Xin Jing

The red flag is leading strongly, ＂Carlyle＂ is stuck, and Lincoln is gearing up

　　New cars have been launched one after another, and sales are catching up with each other. "Carlyle", which is a match for the second-tier high-end car runner-up, can be said to be quite interesting. And the annual champion seems to be in the bag of Red Flag. In the first seven months of this year, Red Flag led with more than 170,000 cars, and it will continue to expand its lead in the future. At the same time, Lincoln is rushing to narrow the gap with other second-tier high-end brands. According to the current sales trend, Lincoln is expected to break through the 100,000 car mark in 2021.

　　On August 16, Lexus’ main model, the new ES, was officially launched, with a price range of 294,900 – 488,900 yuan, which was higher than the current price. "Old rival" Cadillac also chose to launch the new XT6 in August. Under the premise of upgraded configuration, the price of the new model is consistent with the old model, which is 392,700 – 552,700 yuan.

　　New cars have been launched one after another, and sales are also catching up with each other. "Carlyle", which is a match for the second-tier high-end car runner-up, can be said to be quite interesting. And the annual champion seems to be in the bag of Red Flag. In the first seven months of this year, Red Flag led with more than 170,000 cars, and it will continue to expand its lead in the future. At the same time, Lincoln is rushing to narrow the gap with other second-tier high-end brands; according to the current sales trend, Lincoln is expected to break through the annual sales of 100,000 cars in 2021.

　　Red Flag accumulates strength in the second half

　　On July 31, the Hongqi brand took the lead in announcing sales data. From January to July, Hongqi’s cumulative sales reached 170,600 vehicles, an increase of 95% year-on-year. According to the cumulative sales of 145,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, Hongqi’s sales in July reached 25,600 vehicles, an increase of 46.29% year-on-year.

Hongqi H9

　　In terms of different models, Hongqi H5 and HS5 are still responsible for sales, and the two models contributed nearly 80% of sales. Among them, Hongqi HS5 is "unique". The cumulative sales from January to July exceeded 82,000 vehicles, not only becoming a regular customer of the "10,000 club", but also successfully ranking among the top ten SUV sales in the country. In addition, the flagship model Hongqi H9 also played a stable role, with an average monthly sales of about 2,500 vehicles.

　　Entering 2021, the "lack of core" crisis made it difficult for many car companies to play a normal level, but it did not disrupt the rhythm of Hongqi’s "crazy output". Data show that in the first half of the year, Hongqi’s sales growth has remained in triple digits year-on-year. At the same time, Hongqi also pays special attention to communicating with customers and growing together. At the "2021 Hongqi Fan Festival" held on July 17, Hongqi announced that the number of Hongqi brand owners has exceeded 500,000, and July 17 was designated as the "Qishi Fan Festival".

　　With innovative marketing and a rich product lineage, Hongqi has won the second-tier high-end market sales championship this year.

　　But it is worth noting that as of now, Hongqi has only completed 42.65% of its annual sales target of 400,000 vehicles, which means that Hongqi needs to achieve an average monthly sales of 46,000 vehicles in the remaining 5 months. Such a challenging sales task makes us look forward to the second half of Hongqi.

　　"Carlyle" meets its opponents

　　According to the latest data released by the China Automotive Center, in July, Lexus sold 22,726 vehicles, surpassing Cadillac’s 19,993 vehicles, and the difference between the two sales was less than 3,000 vehicles.

A Cadillac 4S store in Beijing

　　Since the beginning of this year, Lexus has maintained a relatively strong development trend in the Chinese market. According to the import data released by the customs, Lexus imported 122,992 vehicles in the first half of this year, an increase of 26.6% year-on-year. Not only did it maintain the first place in the top ten brands of imported passenger cars, but it also surpassed Cadillac with a slight advantage of more than 4,000 vehicles.

　　Regarding the reason why Cadillac is temporarily lagging behind, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Association, analyzed and said, "Cadillac is mainly affected by the’lack of core ‘, which is related to the overall deployment of the general system." Some industry insiders also believe that although Lexus currently dominates in quantity, Cadillac’s cumulative growth rate is obviously better than Lexus, indicating that Cadillac has more strength. Considering the precedent of Cadillac’s successful "anti-kill" at the end of last year, the battle for the second-tier high-end runner-up is even more interesting.

　　Lincoln galloped

　　Compared with the aggressiveness of Red Flag and the "stickiness" of "Carlyle", Lincoln is rushing to narrow the gap with other second-tier high-end brands. Data show that Lincoln sold more than 7,700 vehicles in July this year, an increase of 36% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month. In July, Lincoln’s sales exceeded 7,700 vehicles, an increase of 36% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month. From January to July, Lincoln sold a total of 49,978 vehicles, an increase of 95% year-on-year, setting the best January-July sales record since the brand entered China.

　　Lincoln’s sales growth is mainly due to the success of localized models. Lincoln’s domestic SUV "Three Musketeers" – adventurers, aviators, and navigators have all made new breakthroughs. Among them, the new Lincoln Navigator has exceeded 2,000 units in a single month, an increase of 167% year-on-year. The success of domestic models has allowed Lincoln to quickly open up in the highly competitive second-tier premium car market. According to Lincoln’s current sales trend, it is expected to break through the 100,000 mark in 2021.

　　In comparison, Volvo’s sales in China are a little "Buddhist", and its sales have shown a steady upward trend following the development of the high-end market. In July, Volvo sold 14,520 vehicles in the Chinese mainland market, and a total of 109,599 vehicles were sold in the January-July period, an increase of 37% year-on-year.

Volvo XC40 pure electric version

　　It is worth mentioning that last month, Volvo Cars and its parent company Geely Holding Group signed an agreement to acquire the controlling stake of Geely in the Chinese joint venture between the two parties, thus fully integrating Volvo Cars’ manufacturing, research and development and sales operations in China. Hakan Samuelsson, CEO of Volvo Cars, said, "Through this agreement, Volvo Cars will become the first major foreign automaker to fully control its business in China." (Zhang Yi, China Economic Net reporter)

＂Bitter people＂ group building! Can Silent Killing reproduce the popularity of Sheep Without A Shepherd？


Special feature of 1905 film network In the girls’ middle school where bullying happened on campus, a mysterious thing happened after a student fell to his death. Female students on campus have disappeared one after another, and no one can find them. However, behind the collective silence is brewing revenge full of hatred and killing.



It is still a familiar suspense theme, a familiar revenge story, and a powerful actor. It seems to be an out-and-out companion, but the seemingly "ever-changing" film contains an "infinite new machine".



One of the new machines, a fuller story. From Sheep Without A Shepherd to Silent Killing, there are indeed similarities in the subject matter of suspense and crime, but Silent Killing is more difficult to distinguish between good and evil in terms of characters and story structure itself, and the compactness of story rhythm has climbed to a new level.



The second new machine, more yuan theme. Under the shell of the theme of campus bullying, Silent Killing hides more social issues for the audience. Compared with the previous crime movies with the theme of campus bullying, it also adds a new story perspective for the audience to think deeply.



The third new machine, a more luxurious cast. "Silent Killing" has enabled powerful actors such as,, and so on, and this ace team has even been dubbed by netizens as "the crime suspense film is built by ruthless people."



The famous comedian also made a "surprise appearance" in Silent Murder, and contributed a joyful performance. The director even claimed that Cai Ming was his favorite actor. This time, he carefully designed Cai Ming’s performance from costume to role, which made her adapt to the cold film atmosphere of Silent Murder.


In this "vicious group building", except Cai Ming, who seems to be the most "harmless to people and animals" in the whole film, all the other characters are murderous in the film posters, full of story and mystery.



First of all, Lin Zaifu, played by Eric Wang, is the most forbearing one among the poster characters, and his character temperament is completely different from the big cross-border fraud BOSS he played last year.



In the film, Lin Zaifu is actually a growing role. After learning that his daughter was killed, his appearance, eyes and actions have undergone very subtle but critical changes. This kind of murderous look filled with silence makes people shudder. However, unlike the father who lost his daughter in other crime movies, he did not fall into madness after learning that his daughter died, but embarked on the road of revenge for his daughter with a little warmth and kindness, which also brought more possibilities for the reversal of the film.



Zhang Junning and his mother and daughter look more mysterious from the poster, and countless secrets seem to be hidden between their closed lips.Zhang Junning made a wonderful performance in Silent Killing. With her rational and restrained face, she showed Haan Lee’s madness to the fullest. At the same time, she also supported the complex role of Haan Lee with countless details, propping up her andkingsaintThe credibility of the mother and daughter.



And Wang Shengdi, a little actor called "monster" by Eric Wang, didn’t say a word all the time, but it made people get goose bumps all over again.



The brightest moment of Sandy was the moment when she passed the four bullying "evil girls". She was no longer the little girl who looked a little timid before. Her eyes were cold and she wore them all through.


These three actors all have amazing explosive power, perfectly controlling the three roles with great versatility, and propping up the whole interlocking and dangerous drama.



After so much discussion about the highlights and actors, back to the title of this film, Silent Killing, why does it have such a name?


Silent killing.



In the eyes of director Sam Quah, human nature is inherently good, so the evil side of human nature is often catalyzed by external factors such as family education, school environment and others’ inaccuracy.



Therefore, when these relationships all appear in the same film and encounter the most extreme "silence", all evils will be maximized. The evil of human nature has a cause and a result.


At the same time, I hope this film can remind the audience that they can stand up when they see injustice, stop being silent, and don’t be an accomplice to silence.


Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd. is recalling some imported Lexus RX vehicles

Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd. has filed a recall plan with the State Administration for Market Regulation. From July 19, 2024, some imported Lexus RX vehicles produced between March 12, 2018 and October 6, 2022 will be recalled, totaling 83,717 vehicles.

The vehicles within the scope of this recall may be worn inside the fuel pump due to insufficient pressure resistance of the internal parts of the high-pressure fuel pump, resulting in cracks in the welded parts of the fuel pump due to stress concentration. In extreme cases, fuel may leak from the cracks, so there is a risk of fire when it comes into contact with external fire sources. At the same time, fuel leakage and volatilization pose unreasonable emission hazards.

Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd. will check the high-pressure fuel pump for vehicles within the scope of the recall free of charge, and replace the parts that do not meet the requirements with the improved high-pressure fuel pump to eliminate potential safety hazards and unreasonable emission hazards. At the same time, provide emergency response measures: Before the recall is repaired, the vehicle should try to avoid close to the fire source; if the user finds that there is fuel smell or fuel seepage, he should stop using the vehicle and contact the dealer for disposal.

The recall is an expansion of the recall of "FAW Toyota Motor Co., Ltd., GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd., and Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd. recall some domestic and imported vehicles" issued on December 1, 2023. Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd. will notify relevant users of the recall by registered mail and other means.

(This manuscript is organized by our reporter Xu Jianhua)

"China Quality News" [Recall Release]

Interview with Cui Zouzhao, the screenwriter of ＂The Fox Wife in the Mountain Village＂： The creation is awe-inspiring, and the pen is touching people’s hearts (2372)

　　Wen Yi Yi Jun

During the years of the Republic of China, there was a chaotic world. On a rainy night with a dark wind and a high wind for a month, in an isolated ruined temple, criminals, officers, blind storytellers, women and children, actors and other people with different intentions talked about the legend of "the fox wife in the mountain village". Through the different versions of "Rashomon" style, the mystery of a period of 15 years ago was uncovered layer by layer, and a terrible conspiracy was quietly staged …

Recently, based on folk legends, online movies have incorporated many elements such as thriller, suspense and love.Fox wife in mountain villageBecome a new explosion. This part consists ofStrange trees have fish.、Pingzhi movie and television、Beixia picturesThe works produced not only have a good reputation, but also have a high score in Douban.6.5, set a record for the highest score of the online movie thriller Douban, and the cumulative box office will soon break through the 20 million mark. The film’sScreenwriter and script plannerCui Zouzhao, once again attracted the attention of the industry.

　

The pen is to the heart, and the core of the story is always people.

As a screenwriter of a series of folk legends such as The Legend of the Hunter in Xing ‘an Mountains, Cui Zouzhao said frankly that the creative process of The Fox Wife in the Mountain Village is a brand-new challenge. Although the word "fox wife in mountain village" is full of curiosity and dramatic tension, it is easy to fall into the stereotype of rural tales of mystery. How to solve the problem is often the first and most difficult challenge for a work.

"Every time there is a new project, we must strive to innovate and break through. This process is both painful and exciting. "Cui Zouzhao didn’t want to write easily, but kept thinking and refining the core of the story. He read a lot of folk information, studied fox fairy stories around the country, and gradually sorted out a set of folk story logic related to "fox".

Screenwriter and screenplay planner Cui Zouzhao

"In fact, whether it’s Strange Tales from a Lonely Studio or folk stories from all over the world, the legend about’ fox’ is often based on people’s desire and expression for morality and human relations. Curious and strange stories are just appearances. In the final analysis, everything still lies in people themselves." In terms of narrative techniques, he firmly believes that we should respect the classic drama logic, not deliberately be unconventional and violate the narrative logic, and at the same time, we should constantly innovate, combine local folk customs and audience expectations, and create a paradigm that conforms to contemporary aesthetics and has profound expression. "In story creation, although we can look back on some classic structures, we can’t copy them mechanically. Creating new expressions from classic content may be a part that every creator is challenging himself. "Cui Zouzhao said.

Based on these thoughts and studies, Cui Zouzhao began to try to outline the embryonic form of such a story: starting with the mysterious spiritual characteristics of the fox and putting these characteristics on the human body, what kind of identity would such a person be? Assuming that "the fox wife in the mountain village" is a rumor, what kind of secret is hidden behind it? If it is in such an extreme environment as "Blizzard Mountain Villa Mode", what kind of suspense situation will it cause if someone tells the story of the fox demon like a storyteller in the past …

The train of thought opened like a spring, and Cui Zouzhao began to create vivid characters, taking their inner motives and ups and downs as the story engine of The Fox Wife in the Mountain Village. With the construction of word by word, a subtle narrative maze has sprung up. On the surface, it is the story of "the fox wife in the mountain village" told by several people, but the real protagonist of the story is Li Shouting, a criminal who is full of crimes and treacherous, and Xie Jin, a squire who has never really appeared in the story.

The multiple narratives of virtual reality and virtual reality are very enjoyable, and the story is reversed layer by layer, which is unexpected and reasonable. Talking about how to integrate such a high-density group drama, multiple clues and diverse styles into the limited creative time, Cui Zouzhao said frankly that there is no secret, and it is nothing more than "pen power to people’s hearts".

"The core of the story is always people, exploring human nature, and there are the brightest, most frightening and most complicated things in it. For example, at the beginning, my setting for each character actually echoed the setting of the seven deadly sins. When I was creating, I also consciously put the camps on both sides in different light, one side was cold and the other side was warm, which actually showed the change of people’s state. The conflict is in the minds of the characters as well as the audience. The barrier inside and outside the story is broken by creation, and the attraction of the story naturally arises. But in any case, we still convey the light of human nature. "Cui Zouzhao said.

Create with awe, and the audience has a steelyard in their hearts.

After the launch of The Fox Wife in the Mountain Village, Cui Zouzhao gained a sense of satisfaction and value as a practitioner and creator after watching the heated discussions and various wonderful analyses and conjectures of many audiences on platforms such as Douban. "For the creators, it is undoubtedly a recognition and a kind of luck to attract the audience to participate inside and outside the story. "It has been Cui Zouzhao’s" careful thought "for many years to attract the audience into the thinking and re-creation of the story through his works.

As many people know, more than ten years ago, Cui Zouzhao was already a popular online novel writer. Cui Zouzhao said that his years of writing experience made him understand more and more that he must understand the thoughts of readers and audiences, and respect them and let them integrate into the story, so as to achieve creative resonance.

"The more in-depth creation this line, in fact, the more I panic, the more awe. Our readers and viewers are excellent and know what they want. We must write step by step and make better and better works. " In Cui Zouzhao’s view, fast-paced, high-density and overwhelmed content must return to the story itself. "A good story is always the first. If the story can’t impress people, there is almost no value in redevelopment."

In order to ensure that his stories are getting better and better, Cui Zouzhao can be described as "trying his best". For example, as long as there is an opportunity, Cui Zouzhao must follow the set all the time, which is not only to revise the script in time to improve, but also to make concerted efforts with the creative team to seize every opportunity to make the shooting more perfect. "It’s like the last egg in the film. In fact, shortly before the boot, I chatted with director Liu Xuandi and actor Guo Donghai. How to make the story look better and make the film more colorful, we have to work harder whenever possible."

Cui Zouzhao knew very well that folk culture is a very large system, and the north and the south are different from each other, so it is absolutely impossible to make it up. To be a good storyteller, we must implement folk customs. Therefore, he personally went deep into the countryside, forests and even scenic spots, and personally inspected and accumulated relevant materials. "On one occasion, we went deep into the tomb of a scenic spot and felt the true original appearance of the tomb. The feeling of terror and pressure was particularly shocking. I knew what it felt like to write such a theme." Cui Zouzhao firmly believes that texture comes from real life, and it can only be reached if it is understood in place.

For Cui Zouzhao, it is a "walking on thin ice" to turn his own words into movies. "I feel really lucky to be able to take what I like as a career, so I cherish and fear it all the more. I know that writing a novel is a matter for one person, and making a movie is a battle for a group of people. This process is very happy and serious. You should be responsible for your team and the audience who come to see your work. The audience has a steelyard in mind, and they can clearly distinguish between good and bad, and they can’t be careless in all aspects. “

In order to make stories look better, Cui Zouzhao’s stories often have multiple meanings and multiple interpretations. "There may be more unexpected hidden endings. For example, there are other mysteries about the identity of blind storytellers … anything is possible." Cui Zouzhao extended a meaningful invitation to the audience, expecting everyone to participate in more interesting exploration of the story. "The ideological core of the film must not be imposed on the audience, but guide everyone to go deep into it with plots and emotions. This subtle communication is effective."

Take a new road, do multiplication and addition well, and then talk about subtraction.

The fox wife in the mountain villagedirectorLiu xuandi, and Cui Zouzhao are not only staunch comrades-in-arms who have cooperated for many years, but also like-minded creative friends. When talking about their views on the online film industry, the two people have the same view: "Do multiplication and addition well first, and then consider subtraction."

"It must be admitted that many viewers have inherent prejudice against online movies and some stories that are bloody and shoddy. Our team is very lucky. Companies like Wonder Tree and Fish, Pingzhi Film and Television give us full trust and support, so that we can create freely on the track in the same field to the greatest extent. Then we should do story multiplication and production addition in creation. Of course, subject to many factors such as the viewing experience of small screen and big screen, production expenses and admission methods, the sub-items have always existed, but we must do what we can to the extreme. " Cui Zouzhao said.

When it comes to the breakthrough of this film, Cui Zouzhao thinks that he and his team are trying to find a new way about domestic thriller movies. "At the moment, there are already many different roads. At this time, we have to think about whether to change the road and have a new scenery. The number of modeled roads is always only a temporary scenery. Our audience is not simple, so we must always keep fresh and interesting when the audience has figured out the creator’s routine, without losing profound expression."

In order to achieve the expected effect, Cui Zouzhao not only skillfully used the "Chekhov’s Gun" in the script, but also set the gun hit the floor by villagers and adopted sons from story suggestion to reality. At the same time, we will strengthen the imaginative scene design that can be realized in actual shooting, and fully consider the production cycle and the difficulty of special effects, and do our best to make the story play its greatest role. For example, in the scene of Fox Fairy’s Cave House in the film, Cui Zouzhao and the director designed several schemes together, and finally chose a giant fox head wrapped in vines to show the mysterious visual impact, which impressed the audience deeply. For the expression of thriller scenes, he also tries to use the sense of scene to create psychological feelings. "My definition of terror stems from people’s awe of the unknown, so I will design something that resonates with everyone in life."

When talking about thinking about the future of online film creation, Cui Zouzhao said that we must always push ourselves to a dead end and not stay in the same place for a moment. "After years of running-in, our team has been thinking about how to present the story to the best effect in a limited budget, and I have become more and more efficient and pragmatic in the process of understanding the whole process. This is our advantage, and we should continue to walk out of a newer and better way on the premise of maintaining it. “

It is not difficult to find that the current online movies have gradually changed from winning by novelty-seeking commercial selling points to the stage of relying on high-quality content for long-term development. Cui Zouzhao said that he hoped that when he was getting old, he would not feel remorse when he looked at today’s works. "Creators have to give themselves an explanation. As long as they can write better, they can’t lie flat."

For the future creative planning, Cui Zouzhao said frankly that he was also preparing the content related to the network short play, and called on more outstanding creators and teams to walk side by side. "We also expect more people to see us. Whether it is online movies or online short plays, the support of each platform on each track is getting bigger and bigger. Those who do a good story with their heart will eventually have a better tomorrow."

Editor | Weiss

　

Focus on double 11 Beauty Series Research Report ①： Marubi, why did you fall behind？

Produced by Red Star Capital Bureau Research Institute
Under the wave of new domestic products, domestic cosmetics are constantly rising. According to the financial report, the operating performance of domestic cosmetics companies such as Polaiya (603605.SH) and Betaine (300957.SZ) has continuously climbed to new heights in recent years.
At the same time, however, the performance of Marubi Co., Ltd. (603983.SH), another old domestic brand, declined instead of increasing, and the business pressure of enterprises increased sharply.
According to the corporate financial report,In the first half of 2022, Marubi achieved an operating income of 817 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.48%; Judging from the data of the semi-annual report in the past five years, corporate revenue has also been obviously under pressure.
↑ Source: Corporate Financial Report, Red Star Capital Bureau
The performance of net profit is even worse. The semi-annual report shows that in 2019 and after, the growth rate of net profit of Marumi shares returned to the mother continued to decline, and negative growth began in 2021 and 2022, and the net profit returned to the mother decreased by 29.46% and 38.11% respectively.
↑ Source: Corporate Financial Report, Red Star Capital Bureau
In addition, according to the market intelligence data of Magic Mirror, among the sales of "618" Tmall domestic skin care products in 2022, Polaiya ranked first with sales of 569 million yuan; Marumi, on the other hand, ranked 22nd with a sales volume of 50,598,600 yuan. Marubi, which was once comparable to Polaiya, is now placed in a number of domestic skin care products, and its performance is not bright.
There are indications that Marumi shares have obviously fallen behind in this wave of domestic products.
In terms of the secondary market, as of the close of October 28, 2022, the closing price of Marubi shares was 28.56 yuan/share, with a total market value of 11.465 billion yuan; Compared with the high of 91.10 yuan/share in May 2020, the gap is far away.
Marubi shares, why did you fall behind? The Red Star Capital Bureau will discuss the product end and channel end of the enterprise in detail.
(1)
In terms of products, the revenue is single, and the business is green and yellow.
At present, Marubi shares mainly have three brands, namely Marubi, Chunji and Love for Fire. Among them, "Marumi" has always been the main source of revenue for enterprises.
In 2007, Marubi Co., Ltd. launched elastin eye cream, shouting the classic TV slogan of "bounce off the crow’s feet"; Since then, enterprises have been eating the old money of "Marubi" eye makeup.
The financial report shows thatIn the first half of this year, the revenue of Marubi brand was 692 million yuan, down 16.83% year-on-year, accounting for 84.88% of the total revenue of the enterprise; In the first half of 2021, the revenue of Marubi brand was 832 million yuan, accounting for 95.48% of the total revenue of the enterprise.
In other words, the performance of Marubi shares has fallen sharply now because of the serious decline in sales of main brands. At the same time, the two brands "Chunji" and "Love Fire" have limited pressure bearing capacity, which makes it difficult for enterprises to hide their decline.
↑ Source: Corporate Financial Report, Red Star Capital Bureau
As far as the "Marubi" brand is concerned, although it has been developed for more than ten years, the positioning of the product itself is still vague and embarrassing.
First of all, at present, the price of "Marubi" eye cream is generally between 348-498 yuan. For users with strong spending power, consumers prefer overseas high-end brand products such as L ‘Oreal and Estee Lauder. For low-and middle-consumption groups, the pricing of Marubi brand has no advantage in the face of explosive eye creams such as Betani and Polaiya.
Secondly, because Marubi focuses on eye care, compared with other care products such as facial care, the market share of eye cream is not large, and there is a problem of low ceiling.
According to the market intelligence data of Magic Mirror, during the June 18 event in 2022, the sales of eye cream products on Tmall platform was 773 million yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, ranking ninth in the sales of TOP15 leaves in the beauty industry.
↑ Source: Magic Mirror Market Intelligence
On the one hand, the market space of eye cream is limited, and on the other hand, competitors are caught between the left and right. Under the double pressure, Marubi shares also began to seek the second growth curve of the enterprise early.
In 2007, Marubi Co., Ltd. launched the brand "Chunji" with the concept of nourishing skin with natural ingredients, positioning popular skin care, and targeting young women; In 2017, the company invested in the make-up market to add the brand of "Love Fire", positioning itself as a brand with light and luxurious Korean make-up and providing make-up products and services.
However, these two brands have not yet come out.
The first is the "Spring Festival". Before 2019, Marumi shares took "Spring Festival" as their key force point. Zhou Dongyu, Wu Jinyan and other celebrities have been invited to speak for them. The explosive variety shows "Let’s Love" and "Confess Now" also have the figure of "Spring Festival". However, the "Spring Festival" has never been able to open the market.
On March 12th, 2022, Wu Jinyan attended the meeting of new stars in the Spring Festival. According to vision china
But the financial report shows thatFrom 2016 to 2018, the revenue of "Chunji" brand accounted for 14.11%, 13.03% and 9.06% respectively, which contributed to the company’s revenue all the way down.
In this year’s semi-annual report, Marumi shares did not separately disclose the revenue of "Spring Festival". However, according to the performance estimates of Marumi and Love Fire, the revenue of "Spring" in the first half of this year did not exceed 25 million yuan, accounting for less than 5% of the revenue.
The "spring discipline" that was once pushed has now completely declined.
Judging from the performance of another brand "Love Fire", the financial report shows that "Love Fire" achieved revenue of 99 million yuan in the first half of this year, accounting for 12.08% of the total revenue. In the short term, Marumi shares may have pinned their hopes on "love fire".
However, from the product point of view, the hot products of "Love Fire" are only "PL can’t see/rub off the series of makeup", and the brand still has problems such as over-reliance on a single explosion, and the public awareness of "Love Fire" brand itself is not high.
Therefore, it is still too early to say that "Love Fire" will become the "revenue baton" of Marubi. After all, the brand itself has not gained a foothold in the market at present, and there is still a long way to improve brand awareness and create continuous explosions.
In general,The main reason why Marubi’s performance did not increase but decreased was that the sales of core main brands plummeted, and the other brands were not connected; On the cosmetics track, the excessively single revenue structure is doomed to make the company’s ability to resist risks weak.
(2)
From the perspective of channels: missing social e-commerce dividends
In addition to the unsuccessful layout of the product matrix, Marubi shares also have no advantage in channel development.
All along, Marubi’s sales model is mainly based on distribution model, supplemented by direct sales and consignment model. Distribution mode refers to the company’s downstream sales through distributors, such as daily chemical stores, department store counters, beauty salons and other online stores except the company’s direct online store channels; The direct selling mode mainly includes direct selling department store counters and direct selling online stores represented by "Marubi Tmall Flagship Store"; In 2016, Marubi Co., Ltd. began to develop a consignment model, mainly through Watson’s and RT Mart’s consignment company "Chunji" brand products.
According to the prospectus, when Marubi shares were listed, there were nearly 200 dealers and more than 15,000 retail outlets nationwide; In 2016, 2017 and 2018, the distribution income of enterprises accounted for 87.99%, 86.54% and 87.65% of the main business income of that year respectively.
However, the channel change of domestic cosmetics industry will soon follow.
According to Euromonitor data and Minsheng Securities Research Report, from 2010 to 2016, the beauty and skin care industry market in China was mainly driven by traditional e-commerce channels, and the marketing methods were mainly hidden TV commercials and celebrity endorsements. Since 2017, it has been mainly driven by social and live e-commerce channels, and the marketing method has changed to KOL (note: key opinion leaders. The concept of marketing is usually defined as: people who have more and more accurate product information, are accepted or trusted by the relevant groups, and have greater influence on the purchasing behavior of the groups) or KOC (note: key opinion consumers, corresponding to KOL). Generally speaking, it refers to consumers who can influence their friends and fans and produce consumption behavior. Compared with KOL, KOC has fewer fans, less influence, more vertical and cheaper advantages, and uses social media to achieve viral spread.
In other words, after 2017, the sales channels of China’s cosmetics industry, social e-commerce began to grab traffic dividends with some large e-commerce platforms, and the problem of Marubi shares was that they did not seize the channel dividends of this wave of social e-commerce.
The beauty of pills in hindsight,It was not until 2020 that online income exceeded offline for the first time. In the whole year of 2021, the online revenue of Marubi shares accounted for 59.54% of the total revenue, and the proportion of traditional channels was still as high as 40%.
↑ Source: Corporate Financial Report, Red Star Capital Bureau
Compared with competitors, this "progress" of Marubi’s online channel may be more different.
The financial report shows that the proportion of online income of Polaiya jumped rapidly from 43.57% to 85.43% in 2018 -2021; Bettini’s online income accounted for 82.34% in 2021.
For Marubi, which started to spread word-of-mouth and plant grass with the help of Xiaohongshu, Weibo, Tik Tok and other platforms in 2021, obviously it missed too many opportunities.
(3)
The dividend fades, is there any chance?
Back to the marketing level, in the environment of social e-commerce, the era when enterprises can cover a large number of consumers by focusing on phenomenal TV programs is gone forever.
This also forces enterprises to carry out digital transformation and upgrading and carry out refined marketing.
On August 27th, this year, the use of raised funds and the realization benefits of raised funds investment projects disclosed by Marubi Co., Ltd. showed that the original raised investment projects "marketing network construction project" and "smart retail terminal construction project" were changed to "marketing upgrade and operation headquarters construction project".
According to the financial report, in the first half of 2022, the sales expenses of Marubi shares were 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.30%; Among them, the advertising promotion fee reached 256 million yuan.
According to past data,From 2018 to 2020, the sales expenses of Marubi shares are all around 530 million yuan; By 2021, the sales expenses of Marumi shares have soared to 741 million yuan.
May 13th, 2021, Shanghai, China Meibo Fair, Marubi shares, Chunji skin care products. According to vision china
It can be seen that in the past year or two, Marubi shares are reorganizing their marketing layout on a large scale, but can Marubi shares really regain their confidence through marketing overweight?
On the one hand, judging from the actual revenue of Marubi in 2021 and the first half of this year, the increase in marketing did not bring corresponding sales results. In other words, users don’t seem willing to pay for it.
On the other hand, it is also worth noting that with consumers’ richer knowledge of social marketing, the conversion rate of social media marketing is gradually decreasing, and the marketing effect is not as good as before.
In the highly competitive beauty industry, it seems reasonable for Marubi to continue to invest in advertising promotion, but the key to the problem lies in how to lay out and put it in.
This is even more challenging for Marubi, which missed the market dividend and relied too much on the traditional marketing mode.
summarizeGenerally speaking, Marubi’s falling behind is not caused by a single factor: the core shortcomings such as single product, poor business, online weakness, brand imbalance, etc., all of which will continue to expand business contradictions and eventually form the current predicament.
Red Star Journalist Liu Mi
Editor Ren Zhijiang Editor Guo Yu
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