Economic Daily-China Economic Net Beijing August 30 th On August 29 th, the National Finance and Development Laboratory’s China Housing Finance Development Report (2019) (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") was released in Beijing. The report predicts that the growth rate of individual housing loans in 2019 will not exceed 20%.
Housing provident fund loan. (China Economic Net data map Shao Xiaoyun/photo)
According to the report, in the context of the central government’s policy of "staying and not speculating" and "resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices", the personal housing credit market maintained a steady and tight trend in 2018. In terms of the total amount, the balance of personal housing loans reached 25.75 trillion yuan at the end of 2018, which is still at a historical high; However, from the perspective of growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of individual housing loan balance declined for eight consecutive quarters, and the year-on-year growth rate was 17.8% by the end of December 2018.
From the perspective of market structure, the five major state-owned commercial banks are the main providers of personal housing loans. As of June 2018, the balance of personal housing loans of the five major state-owned commercial banks totaled 16.41 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.97% of the total personal housing loans of commercial banks nationwide.
From the trend of interest rate, the interest rate of individual housing loan showed an upward trend in 2017, and its internal logic was consistent with the quantitative trend; Affected by global trade frictions, domestic economic downturn and other factors, the interest rate of personal housing loans ended its upward trend in December 2018.
In terms of risk, the NPL ratio of individual housing loans was 0.30% in 2017, which was lower than the overall level of NPL ratio of commercial banks; The value ratio of new loans is in a reasonable range, and the mortgage risk does not have a significant impact on banks in the short term. However, from the perspective of debt-to-income ratio and other indicators, there is limited room for expansion of individual housing loans.
Looking forward to 2019, the report believes that the probability of a fundamental change in real estate control policies is small, and the current leverage level does not support the further expansion of credit. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of personal housing loans will not exceed 20%. In terms of price, the interest rate of the first home loan will drop greatly, which is the result of highlighting the residential property of the house; The interest rate of the second home loan will remain stable, or decrease slightly, because the positioning of "housing without speculation" has not changed substantially.