The three key words of China’s economy were clearly stated in an article in People’s Daily. – 上海419论坛-上海后花园论坛-爱上海-上海龙凤419

　　People’s Daily reporter Tian Junrong Bai Tianliang Zhu Juan Liu Zhiqiang

　　Can China’s economy maintain medium-high speed growth? Can China Avoid the "Middle Income Trap"?Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has made a scientific judgment that economic development has entered a new normal, put forward a new development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, started a new practice of supply-side structural reform, and marked the new economic orientation of China with new strength.

　　Where do we come from and where are we going? Focusing on the grand and important theme of China’s new economic orientation, People’s Daily published a long commentary, which gave an authoritative exposition on three key words: new normal, new development concept and supply-side structural reform. The following is the pure dry version of this article. If you want to know the economic development trend of China, let’s take a look at it together.

　　●About the new normal

　　[New normal brings new changes]

　　The economic growth rate has changed from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, the mode of economic development has changed from extensive growth of scale and speed to intensive growth of quality and efficiency, the economic structure has changed from incremental capacity expansion to deep adjustment of stock and excellent incremental coexistence, and the driving force of economic development has changed from traditional growth kinetic energy to new growth kinetic energy.

　　[Have a new understanding under the new normal]

　　1. Why is there a speed change?

　　Because the potential growth rate that determines economic growth "can’t" grow as fast as in the past. Because, after the total amount and base become larger, it can’t grow as fast as in the past. It is also because the resources and environment "can’t stand" the rapid growth as in the past.

　　2. Why is there structural optimization?

　　With the decline in the supply of capital, land and other factors, the constraints of resources and environment are strengthened, and the service industry with less factor input and energy consumption pollution stands out, and the industrial structure will be continuously optimized; With the increase of factor prices and the decrease of savings rate, the growth rate of export and investment slows down, consumer demand continues to grow rapidly, and the demand structure will be continuously optimized; With the acceleration of urbanization and industrial transfer, the urban and rural regional structure will be continuously optimized; With the decrease of labor supply, the scarcity of human resources is prominent, and the income distribution structure will be continuously optimized.

　　3. Why is there power conversion?

　　[Under the new normal, China is still in an important period of strategic opportunities for development]

　　The fundamentals of long-term economic development have not changed, the basic characteristics of good economic resilience, sufficient potential and large room for manoeuvre have not changed, the good supporting foundation and conditions for sustained economic growth have not changed, and the forward trend of economic restructuring and optimization has not changed.

　　● About the new development concept

　　New orientation, "what do you think"? Have new ideas in your mind.

　　"Adhering to innovative development, coordinated development, green development, open development and shared development is a profound change that has a bearing on China’s overall development." The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee put forward a new development concept, which marked the way forward for the new economic orientation.

　　[How do cadres practice new ideas? 】

　　"Cadres should take responsibility, how much responsibility can they do and how much they can achieve" — — The new state must be responsible.

　　"Adapt to and grasp the trend characteristics of China’s economic development entering a new normal, maintain strategic strength and enhance self-confidence in development" — — In the new state, we must have a certain strength.

　　"More consciously adhere to and apply dialectical materialist world outlook and methodology, enhance dialectical thinking and strategic thinking ability, and strive to improve the ability to solve the basic problems of China’s reform and development" — — New state, but also as.

　　●On supply-side structural reform

　　New orientation, "how to do it" There should be new practice under your feet.

　　Why does China’s economy pay more attention to the "supply side" while paying attention to the "demand side"?

　　[From the speed dimension]

　　Behind the speed shift under the new normal is essentially structural adjustment. You can’t get through it by cooking, nor can you take the old road of stimulating demand. The demand-side policy space is getting smaller and smaller, but the crowding-out effect is getting bigger and bigger. To achieve healthy and sustainable economic development, we must start from a long-term perspective, base on structural adjustment, and shift the policy focus to the supply side.

　　[From the structural dimension]

　　The problems faced by economic development under the new normal are on both sides of supply and demand, but the main contradiction lies in the supply side: on the one hand, some industries have serious overcapacity, on the other hand, they have to import a large number of key equipment and high-end products; On the one hand, consumers’ demand for high-quality and reputable consumer goods is increasing, on the other hand, domestic supply cannot be met, which leads to the unrelenting overseas shopping enthusiasm and "demand spillover".

　　[From the dynamic dimension]

　　The new normal requires China’s economy to be driven by innovation. As the aggregate of market entities constitutes the supply side, only through the structural reform of the supply side can we stimulate the motivation and vitality of innovative entities and make China’s economy truly move from "sweat type" to "intelligence type". (Editor: Cao Lei)

　　[Attached to the original People’s Daily]

　　China’s new economic orientation

　　Everything is changing, only the change itself is eternal.

　　On the sea heading for the other side of national rejuvenation, the latitude and longitude of China’s economic ships are constantly changing.

　　This economy, which has created the longest record of a country’s rapid economic growth after World War II, is facing speed shift nodes, structural adjustment nodes and power conversion nodes, and has entered a new state, new pattern and new stage in the spiral development process, standing in a new historical position.

　　Innovation in change, progress in new China, and breakthrough in progress. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has stood tall and farsighted, made a scientific judgment that economic development has entered a new normal, put forward a new development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, initiated a new practice of supply-side structural reform, and marked the new orientation of China’s economy with new strength.

　　New orientation, new normal

　　New orientation, "what do you think"? Economic development has entered a new normal.

　　7.7%、7.7%、7.3%、6.9%、6.7%… … This is the economic growth rate of China from 2012 to the first three quarters of 2016. This slightly downward curve does not seem to be "in tune" in the economic growth chart since the reform and opening up. For more than 30 years, China’s economic growth rate has only been 2-mdash three times in a row; Less than 8% in 3 years: the first time was 1979— In 1981, the second time was 1989— In 1990, the third time was 1998— In 1999, these three declines were mainly interfered by short-term factors, and then they all returned to the track of rapid growth. This fourth time, is it a short-term bottoming or a long-term shift? Can the economic growth rate "go back"? Will deceleration turn into stall?

　　Faced with all kinds of doubts and worries, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core calmly observed and thought carefully, and made a new major strategic judgment on China’s economic situation — —

　　"China’s development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities. We must enhance our confidence, proceed from the current stage characteristics of China’s economic development, adapt to the new normal, and maintain a strategic normal mentality." In May 2014, when General Secretary of the Supreme Leader visited Henan, he publicly put forward the concept of "new normal" for the first time.

　　"Understanding the new normal, adapting to the new normal and leading the new normal are the great logic of China’s economic development at present and in the future." The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2014 systematically expounded the new normal.

　　New normal, new changes.

　　The new normal brings new speed, new mode, new structure and new impetus: the economic growth rate shifts from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, the economic development mode shifts from extensive growth of scale and speed to intensive growth of quality and efficiency, and the economic structure shifts from increasing quantity and capacity to deep adjustment with the coexistence of stock adjustment and optimal increment, and the economic development momentum shifts from traditional growth momentum to new growth momentum. In a word, a series of major changes are taking place within China’s economic system.

　　New normal, new coordinates.

　　Looking from the historical steps, the development process of China for thousands of years has experienced several major periods from prosperity to decline and then to prosperity. The new normal is the result of changes in different development stages in the new period, and it is also a "key unit" for connecting the past with the future and carrying forward the future.

　　China was founded by agriculture in ancient times, and its farming civilization has always been ahead of the world. In modern times, it missed the precious opportunity of the industrial revolution and fell behind in the trend of the times for a long time. After the founding of New China, large-scale industrialization began. Since the reform and opening up, it has taken decades to complete the development process that developed countries have gone through for hundreds of years, and the total economic output has jumped from the 11th place in the world to the 2nd place.

　　In this way, China’s economy has entered a new normal in its efforts to catch up. Behind us, it is "humiliation, invasion and war of foreigners in the past hundred years", which is the cry and exploration of countless people with lofty ideals; In front of us is the goal of "two hundred years" and the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This is the historical coordinate of the new normal in the long process of China’s development! As a foreign media said: "Unlike the so-called new normal in which many western countries experienced unemployment after the international financial crisis, China’s policy makers used this word to define the goal of realizing the country ‘ Two hundred years ’ The key development stage of the goal. "

　　New normal, new understanding.

　　This is an inevitable stage — — The arrival of the new normal is the result of the role of economic laws, not the transfer of human will.

　　Why is there a speed change?

　　Because the potential growth rate that determines economic growth "can’t" grow as fast as in the past. According to the principle of economics, the potential growth rate is mainly determined by labor input, capital input and total factor productivity. From the perspective of labor input, in 2012, China’s 15-mdash; The 59-year-old working-age population has declined absolutely for the first time, and the growth of labor input in the whole society will gradually slow down; From the perspective of capital investment, the other side of the decline in the working-age population is that the number of dependent people increases, the maintenance expenditure increases, the savings rate decreases, and the growth of capital available for investment will slow down; The total factor productivity, which represents efficiency, can hardly be greatly improved for a while.

　　Because, after the total amount and base become larger, it can’t grow as fast as in the past. When an economy grows up, the absolute value of GDP increases by one percentage point, which is much larger than in the past, and it is impossible to maintain the long-term high-speed growth of "perpetual motion machine".

　　It is also because the resources and environment "can’t stand" the rapid growth as in the past.

　　Why is there structural optimization?

　　With the decline in the supply of capital, land and other factors, the constraints of resources and environment are strengthened, and the service industry with less factor input and energy consumption pollution stands out, and the industrial structure will be continuously optimized; With the increase of factor prices and the decrease of savings rate, the growth rate of export and investment slows down, consumer demand continues to grow rapidly, and the demand structure will be continuously optimized; With the acceleration of urbanization and industrial transfer, the urban and rural regional structure will be continuously optimized; With the decrease of labor supply and the scarcity of human resources, the income distribution structure will be continuously optimized.

　　Why is there a power conversion?

　　In the past, the low prices of production factors became an important driving force for the rapid operation of China, a "world factory". Today, the prices of these factors have undergone qualitative changes, forcing China’s economy to turn to innovation. If China wants to enter the ranks of high-income countries, it must change from simple imitation to independent innovation.

　　This is a necessary stage — — The new normal is an inevitable process for China’s economy to evolve into a stage with more advanced form, more optimized division of labor and more reasonable structure, during which pressure and hope coexist, and challenges and opportunities coexist.

　　This voyage may have the risk of flying wildly.

　　Under the new normal, with the slowdown of economic growth, many risks that were concealed in the period of rapid growth began to be exposed, and the "middle income trap" became an unavoidable test question. Of the 101 economies listed as middle-income countries by the World Bank in 1960, only 13 have entered the ranks of high-income countries, and only 3 of these 13 countries have a population of more than 25 million.

　　On this voyage, we must have the confidence to hit the water in the middle.

　　Under the new normal, despite the downward pressure, China is still in an important period of strategic opportunities for development. The fundamentals of long-term economic development have not changed, the basic characteristics of good economic resilience, sufficient potential and large room for manoeuvre have not changed, the good supporting foundation and conditions for sustained economic growth have not changed, and the forward trend of economic restructuring and optimization has not changed.

　　Focusing on the present, despite the intensification of business differentiation, the clearing of excess capacity has accelerated, emerging formats have emerged, market vitality has increased, and investor confidence has increased; Although there is still structural pressure on employment, it is still stable overall; Despite the accumulation of financial risks in some regions and fields, there will be no overall systemic risks; Although the impact of the international financial crisis still exists, the global economy is slowly recovering.

　　Looking forward to the future, China’s economic operation can not be U-shaped, let alone V-shaped, but L-shaped. After adjustment, China’s economy will enter a new stage of development with higher quality, better efficiency and more sustainability. A survey of authoritative economists by a financial media shows that for China’s economy in the third quarter of this year, 54% economists think it has reached the end of the L-shaped "horizontal bar", 38% think it has entered the "horizontal bar" and only 8% think it has not yet reached the end of the "horizontal bar".

　　New orientation, new concept

　　New orientation, "what do you think"? Have new ideas in your mind.

　　Idea is the forerunner of action, and idea is like the brain, directing where the feet go and where the strength goes. From taking economic construction as the center, development is the last word, to development is the top priority of the party in governing and rejuvenating the country; From adhering to scientific development, comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development to adhering to the overall layout of "five in one", the development process of China is also the process of upgrading ideas and renewing ideas. Today, development has entered a new normal, the environment has changed, the conditions have changed, and the concept must be updated.

　　The new concept does not come out of thin air, but is put forward in view of the outstanding contradictions and problems in China’s development under the new normal.

　　— — Under the new normal, dividends such as "latecomer advantage" and "comparative advantage" are gradually exhausted, and it is urgent to seek new impetus. Innovation and development focus on solving the problem of development motivation.

　　General Secretary of the Supreme Leader has calculated that the world’s developed population adds up to about 1 billion people, while China has more than 1.3 billion people, all of whom have entered modernization, which means that the world’s developed population will more than double. We can’t imagine that we can produce and live in a way that the current developed population consumes resources, then the existing resources in the world are not enough for us! The old road won’t work. Where is the new road? "In terms of scientific and technological innovation, it is accelerating the transformation from factor-driven, investment-scale-driven development to innovation-driven development."

　　— — Under the new normal, the optimization of economic structure is more important, and it is more urgent to prevent the "barrel effect". Coordinated development focuses on solving the problem of unbalanced development.

　　Unbalanced urban and rural development, unbalanced regional development and unbalanced economic and social development … … To grasp the new orientation of economy, we must plan the coordinated development of economy and society, enhance the balance of development, and prevent today’s "short board" from becoming tomorrow’s "trap".

　　— — Under the new normal, the carrying capacity of resources and environment has reached or approached the upper limit. Green development focuses on solving the problem of harmony between man and nature.

　　Will tomorrow be "haze" or "blue sky"? At present, the value of PM2.5 always touches people’s eyes. There are more tall buildings and bulging wallets, but clear rivers and clean air have become luxuries. More and more people realize that this is not the modernization we are pursuing. From hunger for food and clothing to environmental protection, from survival to ecology, people’s voice for green development is getting higher and higher. Only green development is sustainable development.

　　— — Under the new normal, China’s traditional competitive advantages such as labor, land and energy have weakened, and it is urgent to cultivate new advantages in international economic cooperation and competition by further improving the level of open economy. Open development focuses on solving the problem of internal and external linkage in development.

　　The situation of international economic cooperation and competition is undergoing profound changes, and the global economic governance system and rules are facing major adjustments. The question now is not whether to open to the outside world, but how to improve the quality of opening up and the internal and external linkage of development, and how to participate in global economic governance. It is necessary to form a new system of opening to the outside world and develop an open economy at a higher level, so as to expand opening to drive innovation, promote reform and promote development.

　　— — Under the new normal, in order to mobilize everyone’s enthusiasm, initiative and creativity for development, cope with downward pressure, maintain medium and high speed, and move towards the middle and high end, it is necessary to let the people share the fruits of reform and development. Sharing development focuses on solving the problem of social fairness and justice.

　　People are the fundamental force to promote development. If we only focus on the fluctuation of economic data and ignore the people’s sense of happiness and gain, we will overdraw the potential of social development and the development will eventually be difficult to sustain. Under the new normal, the people are not only pursuing food and clothing, but also eager to live a high quality and stand up; The people care about not only the visible benefits, but also the fair social environment and the opportunity to shine in life. This means that development should take the people as the center, coordinate the interests and let the development results benefit everyone.

　　The research of development economics shows that most of the so-called "traps" stem from the change of resource endowment, and the development path that the past relied on is blocked, and the new development path has not been found, and the development is locked. The new development concept is the key for China to resolve the development risks and cross the development trap. Innovative development can avoid power decline, coordinated development can avoid imbalance and weightlessness, green development can avoid environmental overdraft, open development can avoid drawing land as a prison, and shared development can avoid social unrest. The five development concepts support and promote each other, answering the most urgent practical problems under the new normal, focusing on enhancing the development momentum and cultivating the development advantages in the new direction.

　　Ideas don’t automatically come true. If you don’t want to do it, don’t dare to do it, and won’t do it, no matter how clear the blueprint and clear the direction, it will be difficult to turn new ideas into new results. Grasping a new orientation and practicing new ideas need to inspire a new state.

　　"Cadres should take responsibility, how much responsibility can they do and how much they can achieve" — — The new state must be responsible.

　　The exploration in the new direction has no precedent to follow and may not be understood: some enterprises will close down and many employees will be laid off when dealing with zombie enterprises. Do you want to do such a thankless thing? Do we have to do some reforms that will take years or even longer to realize their significance? The harder it is, the more responsibility it becomes. Today, I missed the precious "window period" and will face a painful "torture period" tomorrow. Adapting to a new orientation with a new concept requires breaking through the fetters and being tenacious for a long time.

　　The determination comes from insight, which not only pays close attention to the economic trend, but also adheres to the bottom line thinking and makes adequate response plans; Determination is willpower, and it is promising to control the "tangible hand" in front of you for long-term development. The determination comes from self-confidence, believing in the great potential and strong resilience of China’s economy, believing in the basic principles and policy reserves, and not being in a hurry when the speed is slow, leaving new ideas behind, and wanting to turn back and put the development goals aside when the reform is dead.

　　Many old ways to seek development in the past can’t be used and won’t work. Today, most of them are "dilemmas". "Will act" must deal with the unity of opposites such as breaking and standing, stability and progress. When encountering problems, think from multiple angles to avoid "the blind touch the elephant"; Deal with the problem, hold the "bull’s nose" and find the right breakthrough path.

　　New orientation, new practice

　　New orientation, "how to do it" There should be new practice under your feet.

　　"Promoting supply-side structural reform is a major innovation to adapt to and lead the new normal of economic development, an active choice to adapt to the new situation of comprehensive national strength competition after the international financial crisis, and an inevitable requirement to adapt to the new normal of China’s economic development." The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2015 opened a new practice of supply-side structural reform.

　　Supply and demand are two basic aspects of the internal relationship of market economy, and supply-side management and demand-side management are two basic means of macroeconomic regulation and control. Why does China’s economy pay more attention to the "supply side" while paying attention to the "demand side"?

　　From the speed dimension — —

　　From the structural dimension — —

　　From the dynamic dimension — —

　　From the coordinate system of the world economy, China’s supply-side structural reform emphasizes both supply and demand, emphasizes the development of social productive forces and the improvement of production relations, and gives full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation and the role of the government. It is by no means a replica of the western supply school. On the contrary, "China is becoming the leader of global structural reform with its early understanding, large room for manoeuvre and strong institutional advantages."

　　2016 is the first year of the decisive stage of building a well-off society in an all-round way, and it is also a crucial year to promote structural reform. The "five major policies" of macro-policy, industrial policy, micro-policy, reform policy and social policy, and the "five major tasks" of de-capacity, de-inventory, de-leverage, cost reduction and short-boarding are all integrated into the "four calculations" of the supply-side structural reform.

　　Aim at excess capacity and do subtraction to "reduce" new space. While the macro policy is "stable", the industrial policy should be "accurate". De-capacity, de-inventory, and de-leverage are determined to make better progress. This year, it is a foregone conclusion that the steel and coal industries have exceeded their production capacity. Production capacity has decreased and profits have increased. The profit of the coal industry has doubled, and the steel industry has turned losses into profits, getting rid of the bitter days of "selling briquettes is not as good as selling potatoes, and steel prices have fallen into cabbage prices" and fighting a "turnaround".

　　Aim at the short board to add and "add" new hope. Employment assistance, internal diversion, job transfer and entrepreneurship … … Social policies are the bottom, ensuring that de-capacity will not affect rice bowls, and the new employment in cities and towns in the first three quarters will achieve the expected target for the whole year; Increase the input of poverty alleviation funds, integrate the use of agriculture-related funds, and combine the length of industrial poverty alleviation … … Get rid of poverty and make up for shortcomings to ensure that poor fellow villagers run towards a well-off society at the same time.

　　Aiming at innovation, do multiplication and "multiply" new kinetic energy. The rapid development of information technology makes life smarter, and the deep integration of industry and Internet makes industry smarter … … New technologies detonate new industries, and new models create new formats. In the first three quarters, strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries maintained a growth rate of more than 10%.

　　Aim to live and do division to "divide" new vitality. Micro-policies should be active, streamline administration, delegate power, strengthen regulation and improve services’s reform has been further promoted, and the business environment has become increasingly relaxed. In the first three quarters, there were 4.01 million newly registered enterprises nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 27%. Reform policies should be realistic, reduce the cost burden of corporate taxes and fees, and release tax reduction dividends.

　　The road to development of a country is long, but the critical steps are particularly critical.

　　Keep the world’s second largest economy growing at a medium and high speed, build a well-off society in the largest developing country in an all-round way, and let one fifth of the world’s population reach the middle and high income level … … The new orientation of China’s economy is the "key node" on the road to revival.

　　Identify ocean currents and understand the new normal; Raise sails and clarify new ideas; Run at full speed and devote yourself to new practice. In this important new development orientation, China economic ship is gathering surging power to break the waves!